How Many Days in 2024 Had a Magic Spoiler?
Preview season descending, spoilers unending
The end of this month marks the halfway point through 2024, and it's been a wild six months of Magic.
Since January 1, we've seen the full release of several sets and supplementary products. If your short-term memory is as porous as mine, allow me to refresh you:
Ravnica Remastered: January 12
Murders at Karlov Manor: February 9
Ravnica Clue Edition: February 23
Fallout: March 8
Outlaws of Thunder Junction: April 19
Modern Horizons 3: June 14
In only a few weeks, we'll be adding Assassin's Creed to this list, which releases on July 5, but if we don't count the crossover with Ubisoft's historical murder simulator, that's five major releases and one weird board game thing in only six months. And don't forget, in today's world, each of these releases (outside of Clue) are more than just a solitary set, but also feature a number of ancillary products, like Commander decks and Special Guests. For context, 20 years ago at the halfway point of 2004, we saw the release of Darksteel (Feb. 6) and Fifth Dawn (June 4), and... that's it. There wasn't a Core Set that year, as those at the time released in the Spring but only in odd-numbered years.
That might be an unfair comparison, however. A lot's changed in two decades, both in Magic and in the world at large. Ten years ago, in the first six months of 2014, we saw Born of the Gods (Feb. 7) and Journey into Nyx (May 2) as our Standard set releases, along with the first Conspiracy on June 6, the release of the "March of the Multitudes" Modern Event Deck on May 30 and March 14's Duel Decks: Jace vs. Vraska. There was also Vintage Masters on June 16, but that was online-only.
That's three "major" sets and two preconstructed deck releases. Still a far cry from the deluge we see today. If we disregard reprints, in 2004 there were 324 new cards added to the total card pool of Magic, while in 2014 there were 386. So far in 2024, there have been 984.
All these numbers are just quantifying what we already know, in that we're in unprecedented times in terms of release frequency. But it's still interesting (to me, at least) to see them compared side-by-side. And if you're curious, we can go back even further, to 1994. In the first six months of that year, Antiquities, Revised Edition, Legends, and Summer Magic were released. Two of those sets are strictly reprints, but Antiquities and Legends gave us 414 cards, which is actually more than 2004 and 2014.
This is all related to release dates, of course, but what about when we first saw the cards?
Spoiler season departing, previews are starting
In recent years, people on social media have made the joke that it seems like "spoiler season" never ends. In 2024, that might not actually be a joke. Wizards of the Coast doesn't like the term "spoilers" and instead uses the words "previews" and "reveals," but even with the more diplomatic verbiage it seems like we're in a perpetual state of revelation.
From January 1 to June 30, there will be 182 days. We even had that bonus day thanks to 2024's status as a leap year. So how many of those 182 days had at least one official card reveal?
Keep in mind, these numbers are estimates.
When we look at those sets mentioned above that have been provided to us since the start of 2024, we can toss out Ravnica Remastered since all the reveals for that one occurred at the tail-end of last year. Being an exclusively reprint set, reveals happened quickly anyway.
The next official release was actually something I haven't mentioned, Year of the Dragon 2024, which featured reprints of seven Dragon-related cards with art provided by Chinese artists. While those cards became available through promotional events in February and March, we actually found out about them in late December of 2023, so that doesn't count either.
After that, we get into the meat of the "never-ending" reveals with Murders at Karlov Manor first up. Those previews began on January 16 and ran for nine days, ending on Jan. 24. The Commander decks associated with MKM were revealed on Jan. 24 as well, and all the new cards included in Ravnica: Clue Edition were shown off to the world at once, on Jan. 22.
Now we'll jump over to Fallout. Previews for the Universes Beyond crossover technically began on Feb. 19 with Bethesda providing a first look, followed by the "normal" preview schedule running from Feb. 20 to Feb. 23. That's five days. However, we actually got a very early preview of the preview via a WeeklyMTG stream on October 19 of 2023.
It wasn't long before we jumped over to Outlaws of Thunder Junction, with official previews kicking off on March 26. Those continued until April 3, a total of nine days. Of the set's extra bells and whistles, its Special Guests inclusions were revealed on March 26 and the "Breaking News" treatments were shown off on April 1. We got an added day of reveals, on April 4, with the publishing of the contents of OTJ's Commander decks.
Things get a bit complicated when we move over to Modern Horizons 3. As you no doubt recall, there was a pretty substantial leak, which threw a wrench into the usual schedule of reveals. Officially, previews in earnest for MH3 and its Commander decks began on May 13 and carried through May 30, skipping a day here and there for a total of 14 days. We can also add a day for when a few cards were shown off as a result of the aforementioned leaks, on April 30.
That's what we have so far for the first half of 2024, at least for major releases. But the thing about previews is that they can happen at any time, and often do. We got our first glimpse at Bloomburrow, a set that won't have its official release until Aug. 2, way back on Feb. 23 to coincide with Magic Con Chicago. That was a big day, actually, as we also got early looks at Outlaws and Assassin's Creed thanks to panels at the convention.
That brings us to Assassin's Creed. Though the cards themselves won't be released until after our little Q1/Q2 thought experiment, the previews began this week and ran three days in total.
Whether a gift or threat
But what about Secret Lairs? Since January 1, there has been one Secret Lair Commander Deck ("Raining Cats and Dogs" on Jan. 22) as well as four "Superdrops," with each containing several individual Secret Lairs. There were also a few standalone SLs sprinkled into all that. In total, there have been 26 Secret Lairs and the one Commander deck in the first six months of 2024.
The first Secret Lair of the year was that Commander Deck, followed by the Winter Superdrop on Feb. 5 which featured this printing oopsie among its six SLs. Also in February were Burning Revelations and Sheldon's Spellbook. In April, we were hit with the Equinox Superdrop, itself again containing six individual SLs. That was followed by the Spring Superdrop only a month later, this time containing seven SLs. We're currently in the midst of reveals for the Summer Superdrop, which is available for purchase on June 24.
Cards in those Secret Lairs appeared online in some cases individually, and in other cases all at once. After scouring social media and online publications (like this one!), overall, it seems like there were 37 days on which at least one card in a Secret Lair was seen for the first time. Some of those days overlap with previews of full sets, so we can't count them all. If we eliminate those, that brings us to 29 days. And we have to extrapolate a bit, since, as this article is being written, there were reveals of the one of the cards in the "NOT A WOLF" Secret Lair only hours ago. If there are more Secret Lairs still to be revealed between now and June 30 (that don't overlap with Assassin's Creed) then we'd have to adjust the numbers accordingly.
Unending hunger given form
Where does that leave us?
As a reminder, January 1 through June 30 is 182 days.
Adding up all the days on which we saw at least one to-be-released card revealed through official channels: 72 days. That's a hair under 40%. Every day you wake up, there's a two-in-five chance you'll see a new Magic card for the first time ever.
If you want to remove Secret Lairs from the equation (as many players seem eager to do at any opportunity), then we've had 43 days of previews in that stretch of time, coming in at 24%. So when someone says that "spoiler season is never-ending," remind them that no, it only averages out to one out of every four days. Stop being hyperbolic.
The real point of this particular thought exercise is to simply reflect on the past six months of Magic's releases. Many of us likely find ourselves overwhelmed, and after looking at the numbers, that's completely understandable. But remember: you don't have to buy everything. It's a simple mantra in theory, but in practice, when FOMO and compulsion start to sink in, it might not be so easy. "Never-ending" spoiler season can be fun, but it can also be crushing when you know you might not have the means to keep up.
Is there an answer? Not really. We know that barring disaster, there's no going back. That's just the nature of a for-profit global corporation. Being mad at that is like being mad at a clown for spraying water in your face from a lapel flower. The only thing in which you really have agency is to keep your distance.
Looking ahead, the schedule is not likely to provide any relief for those of us feeling the weight of "never-ending" spoiler season. We've still got Bloomburrow on Aug. 2 and Duskmourn: House of Horror slated for release before the end of the year. And it'd be a fool's dream to assume there won't be more than that interstitially. There are still two more Magic Cons on the calendar for 2024, and you know how much they love to show off new cards during those.
How do you think the second half of 2024 will play out? Do you think we'll keep up with that 40% average? Or surpass it?
